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- Weekly Outlook November 5-11
Hello everyone! The transition to colder weather will dominate this week. Here's what you need to know. Sunday 11/5: Partly cloudy skies ⛅. Daytime high of 66°F and nighttime low of 36°F. Monday 11/6: Partly cloudy skies ⛅ followed by increasing clouds overnight accompanied by a possible shower or two 🌧️. Daytime high of 56°F and nighttime low of 44°F. Tuesday 11/7: Mix of clouds and sunshine ⛅. Daytime high of 67°F and nighttime low of 38°F. Wednesday 11/8: Partly cloudy skies ⛅. Daytime high of 51°F and nighttime low of 41°F. Thursday 11/9: Morning showers followed by overcast skies in the afternoon 🌧️. Daytime high of 62°F and nighttime low of 43°F. Friday 11/10: Cloudy skies in the morning followed by showers in the afternoon 🌧️. Daytime high of 49°F and nighttime low of 37°F. Saturday 11/11: Partly cloudy skies ⛅. Daytime high of 52°F and nighttime low of 34°F. Concluding thoughts: Overall cooler and pleasant conditions, but watch out for more precipitation by the end of this week.
- Mid-week Outlook November 1-4
Hello everyone! Welcome to the month of November. We'll start off with generally colder weather. Here is what you need to know. Wednesday 11/1: Overnight showers will continue until the mid-morning hours 🌧️. Afterward, mostly cloudy skies in the afternoon 🌥️. Daytime high of 49°F and nighttime low of 29°F. Thursday 11/2: Sunny skies ☀️. Daytime high of 50°F and nighttime low of 31°F. Friday 11/3: Clear skies in the morning followed by increasing clouds in the afternoon ⛅. Daytime high of 55°F and nighttime low of 40°F. Saturday 11/4: Partly cloudy skies ⛅. Daytime high of 58°F and nighttime low of 41°F. Concluding thoughts: Rest of the week is dry and pleasant, but with colder temperatures.
- Weekly Outlook October 29-November 4
Hello everyone! The record warmth last week has ended, and colder conditions have arrived. Here is what you need to know for Chatham, NJ. Sunday 10/29: Occasional rain 🌧️. Daytime high of high of 53°F and nighttime low of 48°F. Monday 10/30: Showers throughout the day 🌧️. Daytime high of 63°F and nighttime low of 37°F. Tuesday 10/31: Happy Halloween 🎃! Partly cloudy skies ⛅. Daytime high of 52°F and nighttime low of 36°F. Wednesday 11/1: Partly cloudy skies ⛅. Daytime high of 50°F and nighttime low of 29°F. Thursday 11/2: Sunny skies ⛅. Daytime high of 51°F and nighttime low of 31°F. Friday 11/3: Mix of clouds and sunshine ⛅. Daytime high of 56°F and nighttime low of 34°F. Saturday 11/4: Partly cloudy skies ⛅. Daytime high of 63°F and nighttime low of 44°F. Concluding thoughts: Rainy start followed by colder conditions and possibly our first freezing nighttime lows.
- Category 5 Hurricane Otis Nears Its Devastating Landfall in Southern Mexico
Otis encountered very favorable conditions today and resulted in an unprecedented explosive intensification phase. The hurricane was recently upgraded to a Category 5 storm with sustained winds of 160 mph (260 km/h). Otis intensified 95 kt (110 mph / 175 km/h) in 24 hours, an incredible increase of winds that rivals Hurricane Patricia's increase of 105 kt (120 mph / 190 km/h) in 24 hours. Otis should maintain Category 5 status as it nears its landfall near Acapulco overnight. There has never been a hurricane of such intensity in this region of Mexico. Preparations should already be completed and I hope everyone stays safe. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds will occur in areas under a hurricane warning. Catastrophic storm surge is expected to cause severe coastal flooding near Otis's center and areas east of the hurricane. Heavy rainfall will continue in parts of southwest Mexico and likely produce flash flooding and mudslides.
- Tropics Outlook October 23
Hello everyone! The tropics are heating up in several parts of the world. Here is what you need to know for today's outlook. North Atlantic Tammy remains a Category 1 hurricane due to moderate wind shear and dry air. Some strengthening is still forecast before transitioning to an extratropical cyclone. Tropical depression 21L is moving inland over Nicaragua soon and no further strengthening will occur. Eastern Pacific Norma dissipates. Tropical storm Otis continues to face easterly wind shear, but gradual intensification is expected and may become a hurricane before making landfall in southern Mexico. Tropical storm warnings and hurricane watches are in effect. North Indian Cyclone Tej is moving slowly off the coast of Yemen and is bringing torrential rainfall in several areas. Tej is expected to dissipate in a few days. Cyclone Hamoon is exceeding expectations and has rapidly intensified to a Category 3 storm with sustained winds of 115 mph (185 km/h). Further intensification is forecast for the next 12 hours or so before wind shear increases. People in eastern Bangladesh and northwestern Myanmar need to finish preparations as soon as possible. South Pacific Cyclone Lola is also rapidly intensifying and is a powerful Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 150 mph (240 km/h). Some intensification is possible before weakening as it approaches Vanuatu. Preparations should be nearly completed. Lola is an unbelievably strong pre-season major cyclone and we never seen anything like this since Cyclone Xavier in 2006, another Category 4 storm.
- Weekly Outlook October 22-28
Hello everyone! We have entered late October, but later this week will be unseasonably warm. Here is your weekly outlook for Chatham, NJ. Sunday 10/22: Partly cloudy skies ⛅. Daytime high of 59°F and nighttime low of 44°F. Monday 10/23: Morning clouds will clear to mostly sunny skies in the afternoon ⛅. Daytime high of 61°F and nighttime low of 36°F. Tuesday 10/24: Partly cloudy skies ⛅. Daytime high of 64°F and nighttime low of 43°F. Wednesday 10/25: Mostly cloudy skies 🌥️. Daytime high of 68°F and nighttime low of 48°F. Thursday 10/26: Mix of clouds and sunshine ⛅. Daytime high of 75°F and nighttime low of 51°F. Friday 10/27: Intervals of clouds and sunshine ⛅. Daytime high of 77°F and nighttime low of 57°F. Saturday 10/28: Mostly sunny skies 🌤️. Daytime high of 79°F and nighttime low of 58°F. Concluding thoughts: First half of the week will have pleasant conditions with cool nighttime lows, but the second half will have warmer temperatures. Enjoy the sunshine and a break from the rain! 😀
- Tropics Outlook October 21
Hello everyone! The tropics are heating up worldwide, from Hurricane Norma to a South Pacific disturbance. Here is what you need to know. North Atlantic Tropical storm Tammy has strengthened with winds of 60 mph (95 km/h) and is heading west-northwest toward the Leeward Islands. The storm is forecast to become a hurricane by Saturday. Thus, tropical storm warnings and hurricane watches are in effect for several areas. A new area of interest in the southwestern Caribbean has a 20% to become a tropical depression within the next 7 days. Eastern Pacific Hurricane Norma peaked yesterday at Category 4 status with winds of 130 mph (215 km/h), but increasing mid-level wind shear has caused the storm to weaken. It's currently a Category 3 hurricane and further weakening is expected as it heads relatively north toward Baja California. Hurricane warnings and tropical storm watches are in effect. Invest 91E is gradually organizing and has a 80% chance to develop into a tropical depression within the next 7 days. Western Pacific Tropical storm Sanba unexpectedly strengthened in the Gulf of Tonkin and unofficially reached a peak intensity of 65 mph (105 km/h) before moving inland. Heavy rainfall remains the primary threat in southwestern Guangdong province, China. North Indian Invest 91A has become a tropical depression in the Arabian Sea and is forecast to be a tropical storm soon. Invest 92B, located in the Bay of Bengal, remains disorganized but it has a 60% chance to form into a tropical depression within the next 7 days. South Pacific Invest 90P is located unusually close to the equator. 90P is starting to organize and has a 80% chance to develop into a tropical depression within the next 7 days as the disturbance heads generally south.
- Mid-week Outlook October 18-21
Hello everyone! This is your mid-week outlook for Chatham, NJ. Wednesday 10/18: Partly cloudy skies ⛅. Daytime high of 62°F and nighttime low of 43°F. Thursday 10/19: Sunny skies in the morning ☀️ followed by more clouds in the evening ☁️. Daytime high of 68°F and nighttime low of 50°F. Friday 10/20: Overcast skies accompanied by showers 🌧️. Daytime high of 62°F and nighttime low of 55°F. Saturday 10/21: Periods of rain 🌧️. Daytime high of 63°F and nighttime low of 45°F. Concluding thoughts: Enjoy the sunshine before rain comes this Friday.
- Tropics Outlook October 16
Hello everyone! This is your tropics outlook on October 10 for the Northern Hemisphere. North Atlantic Invest 94L has been disorganized over the past couple of days. Regardless, the invest still has a 80% chance to develop into a tropical depression within the next 7 days. Eastern Pacific Invest 90E has a 90% chance to become a tropical depression within the next 24 hours. Recent satellite imagery suggest that the disturbance has attained better organized convection. Conditions should allow significant intensification to occur. An area of interest south of Guatemala has a 80% chance to form into a tropical depression within the next 7 days. Western Pacific Invest 99W has a 80% chance to become a tropical depression within the next 2 days based on recent satellite trends of better organized convection. The invest is expected to make an unusual track up north into the Gulf of Tonkin. North Indian An area of interest located in the Arabian Sea has a 70% chance to develop into a tropical depression within the next 7 days.
- Typhoon Bolaven Update
Super Typhoon Bolaven remains at Category 5 status but has weakened to with sustained winds of 175 mph (280 km/h) and a pressure of 908 millibars. While official estimates have a 180 mph (290 km/h) peak for the typhoon earlier on October 11, Bolaven was potentially stronger. Overall satellite estimates support winds as strong as 190 mph (305 km/h). Although there is debate on the typhoon's true intensity, there is no debate that Bolaven was the first Category 5 storm in October worldwide since Super Typhoon Goni in 2020. Bolaven is currently heading northeast at 10 mph (17 km/h) and is passing the Bonin Islands. Wind shear should start to increase in about a day or so, which would cause steady weakening.
- SPECIAL UPDATE: Hurricane Lidia Makes Landfall
Hurricane Lidia made landfall near Las Penitas, Jalisco, Mexico at 23:50 UTC or 7:50 pm EDT. Sustained winds were 140 mph (220 km/h) and a pressure of 942 millibars. Lidia will continue to move inland over mountainous terrain and dissipate by tomorrow. Here is info per the NHC that you need to know for Lidia. Impacts Storm surge will cause severe coastal flooding, especially to areas south of where Lidia made landfall. Total rainfall is expected to be up to 8 inches (~20 cm) with localized areas exceeding 12 inches (~30 cm). Swells will continue for the next day or so, bringing dangerous rip current and surf conditions for parts of western Mexico and Baja California. Warnings Hurricane Warning Las Islas Marias. Manzanillo to El Robito Tropical Storm Warning Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo El Roblito to Mazatlan.
- Weekly Outlook October 8-14
Hello everyone! Here is your weekly outlook for this week in Chatham, NJ. Sunday 10/8: Partly to mostly cloudy skies 🌥. Daytime high of 59°F and nighttime low of 42°F. Monday 10/9: Partly cloudy skies in the morning followed by increasing clouds in the evening 🌥. Daytime high of 60°F and nighttime low of 44°F. Tuesday 10/10: Partly cloudy skies ⛅. Daytime high of 65°F and nighttime low of 43°F. Wednesday 10/11: Mostly sunny skies 🌤. Daytime high of 66°F and nighttime low of 44°F. Thursday 10/12: Increasing clouds throughout the day 🌥. Daytime high of 62°F and nighttime low of 46°F. Friday 10/13: Mostly cloudy skies 🌥. Daytime high of 61°F and nighttime low of 45°F. Saturday 10/14: Periods of showers 🌧. Daytime high of 55°F and nighttime low of 47°F. Concluding thoughts: Mix of clouds and sunshine throughout the week and overall cooler conditions. Watch out for precipitation by the end of this week.