Tropics Outlook September 21

North Atlantic

• Hurricane Nigel slightly weakens with sustained winds of 80 mph (130 kmh). Its structure collapsed due to increasing wind shear as the storm accelerates northeast. Nigel should become an extratropical cyclone by tomorrow morning.

• The area of interest in the central Atlantic is designated as Invest 90L and has a 80% chance to form within the next 7 days.

• Potential Tropical Cyclone 16L is designated northeast of Abaco Island, the Bahamas and has a 60% chance to form into a (sub)tropical depression or storm within the next 2 days. Regardless of development, heavy rain, flooding, and tropical-storm-force wind gusts are expected from parts of the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic states.

Image 1: Visible imagery of Hurricane Nigel from Tropical Tidbits. Nigel is becoming increasingly sheared as the system heads east-northeast out to sea.

Image 2: Day 1-5 rainfall forecast from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC). All coastal areas from North Carolina to Massachusetts are forecast to get at least 2 inches of rain from Potential Tropical Cyclone 16L.

Eastern Pacific

• Tropical storm Kenneth's convection has been stripped from its center and is expected to become a remnant low tomorrow as the storm heads generally north.

• The area of interest has a 50% chance to become a tropical depression within the next 7 days.

Central Pacific

• Former Invest 96E moved into the Central Pacific and got re-designated as Invest 91C. This disturbance has a 20% chance to become a tropical depression within the next 2 days before conditions become unfavorable this weekend.

Image 3: Visible imagery of Invest 91C from Tropical Tidbits. 91C has a better center but convection remains disorganized.

Western Pacific

• Invest 96W is not expected to develop.

• Invest 90W has a 10% chance to become a tropical depression within the next 7 days.

North Indian

• Invest 98A is still not expected to form.