Tropics Outlook October 21

Hello everyone! The tropics are heating up worldwide, from Hurricane Norma to a South Pacific disturbance. Here is what you need to know.

North Atlantic

• Tropical storm Tammy has strengthened with winds of 60 mph (95 km/h) and is heading west-northwest toward the Leeward Islands. The storm is forecast to become a hurricane by Saturday. Thus, tropical storm warnings and hurricane watches are in effect for several areas.

5 day forecast cone from the NHC for Tammy. Tropical storm watches and warnings and hurricane watches are in effect for the Leeward Islands.

• A new area of interest in the southwestern Caribbean has a 20% to become a tropical depression within the next 7 days.

Eastern Pacific

• Hurricane Norma peaked yesterday at Category 4 status with winds of 130 mph (215 km/h), but increasing mid-level wind shear has caused the storm to weaken. It's currently a Category 3 hurricane and further weakening is expected as it heads relatively north toward Baja California. Hurricane warnings and tropical storm watches are in effect.

Infrared imagery of Hurricane Norma at its peak intensity as a Category 4 hurricane. A defined eye is shown at the center of the image.

5 day forecast cone from the NHC for Norma. The hurricane is expected to bring severe impacts to southern Baja California.

• Invest 91E is gradually organizing and has a 80% chance to develop into a tropical depression within the next 7 days.

Western Pacific

• Tropical storm Sanba unexpectedly strengthened in the Gulf of Tonkin and unofficially reached a peak intensity of 65 mph (105 km/h) before moving inland. Heavy rainfall remains the primary threat in southwestern Guangdong province, China.

North Indian

• Invest 91A has become a tropical depression in the Arabian Sea and is forecast to be a tropical storm soon.

• Invest 92B, located in the Bay of Bengal, remains disorganized but it has a 60% chance to form into a tropical depression within the next 7 days.

South Pacific

• Invest 90P is located unusually close to the equator. 90P is starting to organize and has a 80% chance to develop into a tropical depression within the next 7 days as the disturbance heads generally south.