Tropics Outlook October 4

North Atlantic

• Philippe is finally heading north as a minimal tropical storm. The system is expected to bring impacts, such as heavy rain and gusty winds, to several areas like Bermuda. A tropical storm warning is in effect for Bermuda.

Image 1: 5 day forecast cone from the NHC for Philippe. The storm will head north and is expected to slightly strengthen.

Eastern Pacific

• Tropical storm Lidia continues to face easterly wind shear with winds of 50 mph (85 km/h). Lidia is expected to gradually strengthen for the next 5 days as it stays out to sea and heads north-northwest.

• The area of interest south of Guatemala has a 80% chance to develop into a tropical depression within the next 7 days.

• Another area of interest in the central part of the Eastern pacific has a 10% chance to form into a tropical depression within the next 2 days. By the weekend, conditions will be unfavorable for further development.

Western Pacific

• Typhoon Koinu peaked earlier today as a Category 4 typhoon with winds of 140 mph (225 km/h). Also, buoys off the coast of Taiwan have recorded very high winds and gusts. Koinu is nearing landfall on Taiwan's southern tip and heavy rain, storm surge, and strong winds are expected in that general area.

Image 2: Polar visible imagery from the satellite MODIS. Koinu was nearing its peak appearance with a warm eye and is an overall symmetric storm.

Image 3: Reflectivity from Taiwan's radars of Typhoon Koinu. The reds and oranges represent heavier rain while the blues and greens represent lighter rain.

• Invest 97W is located near the Mariana Islands and has a 10% chance to become a tropical depression within the next 7 days.

• Invest 98W has a 50% chance to develop into a tropical depression within the next 7 days.