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Writer's pictureBrandon Wong

Tropics Outlook September 20

Hello, this is an outlook of the tropics that covers the Northern Hemisphere!


North Atlantic

  • Hurricane Nigel peaked yesterday and is now downgraded to a Category 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 90 mph (150 kmh). Its outflow is starting to get hindered, which should allow further weakening as the storm heads northeast and stays out to sea.

  • The area of interest in the central Atlantic remains at 70% chance to form into a tropical depression within the next 7 days. Again, it's too soon as to where the potential track and the impacts will be.

  • The area of interest located off just north of the Abaco Islands, Bahamas has a 40% chance to form into a (sub)tropical depression within the next 7 days. People in the Southeast like South Carolina and North Carolina and in the Mid-Atlantic states should be prepared for heavy precipitation.


Hurricane Nigel weakening.
Image 1: Visible imagery of Hurricane Nigel from Tropical Tidbits. Nigel retains a large, ragged eye but its overall structure is starting to deteriorate.

Eastern Pacific

  • Tropical storm Kenneth slightly strengthens with winds of 50 mph (85 kmh) and should be near or at its peak intensity. Mid-level wind shear is expected to increase soon as the storm remains out to sea.

  • Invest 96E has a 30% chance to form into a tropical depression within the next 7 days before conditions become unfavorable for further development.

  • A new area of interest has a 40% chance to form into a tropical depression within the next 7 days.


Tropical storm Kenneth near its peak.
Image 2: Visible imagery of Tropical storm Kenneth from Tropical Tidbits. Kenneth is starting to head northward as shear increases.

Western Pacific

  • Invest 96W chances have dropped to 10% for forming into a tropical depression due a sharp increase in wind shear.

North Indian

  • Invest 98A is slowing moving across the western part of the state of Gujarat, India. 98A is not expected to develop into a tropical depression.


Invest 98A
Image 3: Infrared imagery (measures cloud temperature in Celsius) of Invest 98A from Tropical Tidbits. 98A's center is very weak and there is sheared deep convection to the west.

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